NYC Climate Week 2026: US Battery Market Outlook with Brandt Vermillion

NYC Climate Week 2026: US Battery Market Outlook with Brandt Vermillion

by Brandt Vermillion (Modo Energy) · View the channel on PSI

Humanities, Social Sciences & Thought Economics & Finance KNIndustry and industrial studiesKNBEnergy industries and utilities
🎙 Brandt Vermillion (Modo Energy) 👥 27K 📅 September 28, 2026 ⏱ 77 min 👁 2K 📄 expert opinion 🧭 2026-10-06
Available in: English (current) Français

Keywords

battery revenuegrid-scale storageancillary servicesenergy arbitragedemand growth

Summary

In this detailed presentation at NYC Climate Week, Modo Energy’s Brandt Vermillion provides an in-depth analysis of the US grid-scale battery storage market. He begins with the macro backdrop: unprecedented demand growth driven by data centers and AI, leading to an explosion of interconnection requests, particularly for storage. He then outlines the history of storage deployment, which has grown from zero to 40 GW in six years, concentrated in ERCOT and CAISO. The core of the talk is the battery revenue cycle: as storage capacity increases, ancillary service revenues saturate, forcing batteries into energy arbitrage, which then gets cannibalized as more batteries compete. Using ERCOT as a case study, he shows how revenues fell from $40/kW-month to $2/kW-month as capacity grew. In contrast, PJM, with only 600 MW, still enjoys revenues of $30/kW-month. The forward outlook suggests that demand growth will eventually absorb the oversupply, forecasting recovery to $12-15/kW-month in ERCOT over the next 3-5 years, and a path to 100 GW of storage by 2030 across the US. The Q&A covers topics like NYISO zones, behind-the-meter storage, long-duration storage, political pushback, and data center load profiles.

187 words

Critical Evaluation

Value of the Information & Strength of the Argument

The presentation offers high practical value through specific market data and revenue figures, giving developers and investors a clear picture of the market dynamics. The argumentation is logically structured: it identifies a cyclical pattern in battery revenue generation, supported by examples from ERCOT and PJM. The use of real dispatch data to calculate actual revenues strengthens the credibility. The speaker also addresses uncertainties, such as the timing and magnitude of demand growth, and considers external factors like tariffs and policy. The reasoning is coherent, though it is based on the firm’s own forecasts, which may carry a commercial bias.

Scientific Rigor, Source Quality, Title Accuracy

The content is based on Modo Energy’s proprietary data and analysis, which is a reputable source in the energy storage industry. No external sources are cited, but the reliance on actual market data from ISOs (ERCOT, PJM) adds rigor. The title accurately describes the content: a market outlook for US battery storage. The presentation is well-structured with clear sections, making it easy to follow. The video’s technical level is appropriate for an audience of developers, investors, and operators, and the Q&A addresses detailed questions. There is a minor note: the talk includes no explicit citations, but the data seems credible given the firm’s expertise.

218 words

Title / Content Match

Title accurately reflects content: a market outlook presentation on US battery storage.

Quality & Reliability

8/10

Detailed data-rich analysis from a specialized energy analytics firm, providing specific figures and forecasts. However, potential commercial bias.

Chapters

Cited Sources

  • Modo Energy — Main website with analytics and data on energy storage markets.

Contribution & Novelties

This talk contributes a clear framework for understanding the revenue cycle of grid-scale batteries, illustrating with concrete numerical examples how market saturation occurs. It provides up-to-date forecasts for storage economics across multiple US ISOs, which is valuable for decision-making. The Q&A further clarifies nuances like long-duration storage and FEOC impacts.

Pour aller plus loin :

88 words

Radar Profile

The radar profile shows high scores across most dimensions, with particularly strong quantitative information and reliability. The technical level is moderate, reflecting its focus on market economics rather than engineering details. The presentation is well-balanced, with slightly lower scores on qualitative novelty due to reliance on known market mechanisms.

Reliability 8/10